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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LAC 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.39 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model