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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.83 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth +0.08 EP
PUNT +0.83 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model