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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 11 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.38 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP