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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(:50) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model