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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 4-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.66 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model