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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP