Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(8:10) 9-K.Redfern punts 36 yards to SEA 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.58 EP
54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model