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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Atlanta Falcons 8

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to ATL 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to ATL 37 for 6 yards (48-J.Hollister; 23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 86, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 44, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model