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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model