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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 35-B.Scott left guard to BUF 22 for -1 yards (29-K.Johnson; 49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.29 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model