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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to PHI 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP