Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

(14:37) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to PHI 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. Penalty on PHI-16-M.Hollins, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.67 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model