Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 35-B.Scott to PHI 40 for 6 yards (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by BUF-51-J.Stanford at PHI 43.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model