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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick bounced into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.54 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP