Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:04) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-32-S.Perry.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model