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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 47
New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(7:26) 29-B.Powell up the middle to JAX 45 for 2 yards (95-A.Jones; 58-A.Calitro).
The Three Options
GO
+0.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.68 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP
KICK
-1.62 EP
- 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
