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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 73

New York Jets 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 29

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 82-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -1.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model