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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 29 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to NYJ 23, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model