4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-J.Lambo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model