Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 70

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

(5:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 30 for 2 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.04 EP
74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model