Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – New York Jets 7

(6:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.14 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model