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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model