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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 3

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP