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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 38 for 14 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model