Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 56

Denver Broncos 13 – Indianapolis Colts 12

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to IND 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model