Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 97

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to DEN 49, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Spencer to IND 45 for 6 yards (58-B.Okereke). PENALTY on DEN-15-J.Winfree, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.76 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 97, worth -6.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model