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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 44

Denver Broncos 13 – Indianapolis Colts 12

What Actually Happened

(14:01) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to IND 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter. PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.01 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model