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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 13 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to IND 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model