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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model