4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP