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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model