Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 85

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(2:09) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to SF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-30-T.Apke.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model