Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 57

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(10:18) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 23 for 17 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model