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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left intended for 18-D.Pettis INTERCEPTED by 30-T.Apke at WAS 14. 30-T.Apke pushed ob at WAS 47 for 33 yards (68-M.Person).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model