Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(5:08) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to LV 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.67 EP
73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model