4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 94

Green Bay Packers 35 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 37, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 43 for 20 yards (30-J.Williams). PENALTY on LV-26-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.14 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 52, worth -3.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model