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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 63 yards to NE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model