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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 30

New England Patriots 33 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 18 yards to NYJ 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-39-J.Richards.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.21 EP