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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 71

New England Patriots 33 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to NYJ 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-18-M.Slater at NYJ 29. 18-M.Slater to NYJ 29 for no gain (10-B.Berrios).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP