Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 33

(12:15) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NYJ 41 for 22 yards (45-R.Miles; 4-L.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model