4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 72

New England Patriots 26 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 20 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model