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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 57

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model