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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 28

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP