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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 91

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to NE 46, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.36 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 91, worth -5.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 48, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP