4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 42

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to MIN 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-82-L.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.36 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model