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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 21 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 21 for 9 yards (51-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model