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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 67

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to MIN 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 15 for 10 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model