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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 55

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman sacked at DEN 38 for -7 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model