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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 1 yard (13-B.Pringle).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.80 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model