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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.57 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP